World ---- Sudan Crisis, (Analysis By- Mohit Singh)
Sudan Political Crisis.
Sudan Political Crisis That Is Becoming a Cause Of Worry For It's Neighbouring Countries As Well.
Prior to 2011 Sudan and South Sudan together were one big country. Sudan was the largest nation in African Continent until Sudan broke into two separate countries Sudan and South Sudan. Now the largest country of Africa is Algeria which too is facing severe political crisis. Sudan shares border with many strategically important countries which are Egypt, Libya, Chad, Central African Republic, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea and has a coastline with Red Sea which has the potential to serve any country of Africa to directly reach important countries like Israel, Saudi Arabia. So we can see Sudan is geographically positioned in such a way that it automatically gains high strategic importance.
As mentioned above the countries with which Sudan shares borders, those neighbouring countries are facing huge poverty, and the biggest reason for this is Sudan. If we'll have a look at the history of Sudan then we would notice that Sudan has been through multitude difficult situations, in fact some situations occurred in such a way that it confuses even the experts, as they are still perplexed regarding the origin and the root cause of those situations.
Old Map Of Sudan
New Map Of Sudan After Sudan and South Sudan Partition.
Reasons For Unrest In Sudan: Sudan is a Muslim majority country with a population of 4 crores with majority of the population living under extreme poverty and hunger. The first major unrest that happened in Sudan was due to imposition of Sharia Islamic Law.
Timeline: i.) 1983- President Gaafar Nimeiry declares introduction and imposition of Sharia Law.
ii.) 1985- After widespread civil unrest, as this decision was immediate, President Nimeiry got deposed by a Transitional Military Council in simple words it was a Military Takeover, a temporary dictatorship.
iii.) 1986- Coalition government came into existence after election, with Sadiq al-Mahdi as Prime Minister. Earlier also Sadiq al-Mahdi had served as Prime Minister of Sudan from 1966-1967.
iv.) 1989- Sadiq al-Mahdi failed to curb the growing unrest in Sudan, in fact it grew more profound. In order to suppress the unrest Military again took over.
v.) 1993- Amidst the turmoil, an individual rose to power who was going to be in power for many decades, his name was General Omar al-Bashir who was appointed as President of Sudan.
vi.) 1995- Natives of Sudan in the beginning appeared to be satisfied with Omar coming to power, even military stood by Omar. Everything was fine, situation was under control, government appeared quite stable, there was internal stability in Sudan. But soon Sudan started facing external threats. Egyptian President Mubarak accused Sudan of being involved in an attempt to assassinate him in Capital of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa.
vii.) 1998- USA launched missile on a pharmaceutical plant in Capital of Sudan, Khartoum.
US had speculations that Sudan was preparing some sort of chemical weapon in that pharmaceutical plant.
Al Shifa Pharmaceutical Plant Destroyed by Missile Attack By US in 1998.
Speculations regarding pharmaceutical plant was one of the issue among many major issues that USA with Sudan. US never liked Sudan's foreign policy. The main issue was that, Sudan was exporting oil to other African countries in addition Sudan was involved in many other activities as well that was against the grand strategy of US regarding whole Africa. Egypt on the other hand too was at odds with Sudan. So Egypt conjoined with USA against Sudan. It was from this point Sudan ran into trouble.
Shattering Confidence of Sudanese Natives: The troubles of Sudan occurred one by one like a 'Chain Reaction' adding fuel to development of further complications. The missile attack done by USA was a big event not only for Sudan but for the entire world as the missile attack was done right on the capital of Sudan, Khartoum. This missile attack led to mayhem in and out of Sudan, economic chaos being the most significant one. The investors withdrew their money, economy of Sudan came to a standstill leading to 'Stagflation', as investors had apprehension that USA can attack Sudan at any moment leading to war, as for people attack on the capital meant attack on the country. But interestingly USA after their first missile attack didn't further attack Sudan, rather their only target was that pharmaceutical plant in Khartoum. But this attack brought damage in other form as it led to disarray on a large scale in Sudan. Investors ran away, people lost trust on their government as they perceived that Sudan government is no more potent enough to handle foreign policies in their favour, and US attack on capital became centre of gravity pulling everyone's attention causing widespread tension.
As a consequence of this disorder, Sudan ran into further crisis as the ongoing disorder gave rise to a movement known as 'Separatist Movement'. People on the west and south of Sudan started raising their voice for their independence from Sudan. As per the experts opinion all this was orchestrated by US very smartly, so that Sudan can further destabilize. USA after going for missile attack was condemned all over the world, so US decided to destabilize Sudan in a political way, this is what experts say. But Sudan government instead of calming down the situation and pacify the people involved in movement, went onto suppress the movement again creating chain reaction for further disturbance. At the end of 1990s and towards the beginning of 21st century, Sudan government did a violent crackdown in the Darfur region of Sudan, as Separatist Movement had started and was at its zenith, demanding for independence from Sudan, thus forming their own independent country. Somehow President of Sudan Omar managed to keep the situation in Darfur under his control, and Darfur remained a part of Sudan, and it still continues to remain.
Darfur Region of Sudan in Blue which still continues to be a part of Sudan.
Omar al- Bashir Arrest Warrant: In 2009 ICC (International Criminal Court) in Hague issued an arrest warrant against President Bashir on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Darfur region of Sudan. This happened for the first time that a sitting president had to face an arrest warrant. But Sudan didn't really pay attention to this issuance of arrest warrant as Sudan was never a part of ICC (International Criminal Court).
International Criminal Court Headquarters in Hague, Netherlands.
South Sudan Gains Independence: A decade after Darfur region unrest and demand for independence, an uproar gained momentum in the southern region of Sudan which grew stronger and reached its apex in 2010. Many Sudanese in southern region of Sudan wanted to detach from Sudan, to form an independent country. Finally, on 9th July 2011 South Sudan became an independent country. This detachment of South Sudan proved disastrous for Sudan as in the northern region of Sudan only 15% of the total oil fields and oil reserves of the country are located which means South Sudan took away nearly 85% of Sudan's Oil Reserves which was a big blow to Sudan, impacting Sudan's economy as Sudan's economy was primarily dependent on Oil. USA further added to the woes of Sudan, but now by direct actions. USA slowly and steadily imposed multiple sanctions on Sudan but all these sanctions came layer by layer, as USA thought that Sudan was promoting terrorism in northern Africa by funding terrorist organisations.
2018-2019 Protests in Sudan, President Bashir Sacked: Protests in Sudan again gained momentum, and became more and more profound. This time the protests were not for independence, rather this time the reason for protests was IMF. The economic situation in Sudan is not at all good and it never was, at present Sudan's economy is on the verge of collapse. As the major source of revenue for Sudan has always been oil exports but now 85% belongs to South Sudan. Recent price drop in global crude oil led to further deterioration of Sudan. Consequently, Sudan went to IMF for bailout to avert further economic disintegration, but as we all know IMF loans are loaded with conditions and restrictions. As when IMF gives loans to a country, it becomes the administrator of that country's economy, and virtually controls everything in order to fix the economy of that loan receiving country. So, accordingly Sudan too had to follow multiple conditions and restrictions and in the process of following all those conditions of IMF blindly, the prices of everything in Sudan shot up, especially prices of basic commodities like milk, wheat, rice, meat escalated rapidly. Thus Sudan ran into a phase of Galloping Inflation (Galloping Inflation is a type inflation where the inflation rate rises to 100%-200% and can sometimes reach 1000% as well). This situation led to food price protests, especially with the involvement of lower middle class people, which forms 40% of total Sudan's population, and 47% of Sudan's population lives in poverty. Timeline:
i.) 2016 November-December: Intense protests. Street and stay at home protests at IMF prompted price hikes for basic goods. Government disperses protests, arrests opposition politicians, bans media coverage.
ii.) 2017 October: US announces partial lifting of sanctions.
iii.) 2018 January: Protests against bread price rise after removal of subsidies by government of Sudan, because IMF loans orders government to reduce public spending.
iv.) 2019 February: President Bashir declares state of emergency, sacks cabinet and regional governors in a bid to end weeks of protests against his rule, in which up to 40 people died.
v.) 2019 April: Military sacks President Bashir in a coup and thus temporarily establishing military rule.
Omar had been president for decades and his plans to stay till 2020 infuriated people more. Omar too did mistakes on his side as well, when there were protests all around, then Omar openly declared that the people who are protesting are from Darfur region of Sudan, and further added that they all are anti-nationals. This declaration enraged Sudanese, as Sudanese perceived this remark as derogatory. Their saying was that how can their protests for food prices can be labelled as protests against nation. Thus more and more people joined the protests and started chanting 'We All Are Darfurs'.
But as of now President Bashir has been sacked and military has taken over Sudan. Military takeover has calmed down Sudanese to some extent. But Sudanese are not at all satisfied by military takeover as they want a stable and sensible government which can keep situation of Sudan under control through democratic means. But for now military has told that they will be the temporary head of Sudan for next 3 months, and has imposed martial law, telling people to stay calm, assuring Sudanese that soon a democratic leader of the country would be chosen.
Sudan Flag
South Sudan Flag
Sudan Political Crisis That Is Becoming a Cause Of Worry For It's Neighbouring Countries As Well.
Prior to 2011 Sudan and South Sudan together were one big country. Sudan was the largest nation in African Continent until Sudan broke into two separate countries Sudan and South Sudan. Now the largest country of Africa is Algeria which too is facing severe political crisis. Sudan shares border with many strategically important countries which are Egypt, Libya, Chad, Central African Republic, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea and has a coastline with Red Sea which has the potential to serve any country of Africa to directly reach important countries like Israel, Saudi Arabia. So we can see Sudan is geographically positioned in such a way that it automatically gains high strategic importance.
As mentioned above the countries with which Sudan shares borders, those neighbouring countries are facing huge poverty, and the biggest reason for this is Sudan. If we'll have a look at the history of Sudan then we would notice that Sudan has been through multitude difficult situations, in fact some situations occurred in such a way that it confuses even the experts, as they are still perplexed regarding the origin and the root cause of those situations.
Reasons For Unrest In Sudan: Sudan is a Muslim majority country with a population of 4 crores with majority of the population living under extreme poverty and hunger. The first major unrest that happened in Sudan was due to imposition of Sharia Islamic Law.
Timeline: i.) 1983- President Gaafar Nimeiry declares introduction and imposition of Sharia Law.
ii.) 1985- After widespread civil unrest, as this decision was immediate, President Nimeiry got deposed by a Transitional Military Council in simple words it was a Military Takeover, a temporary dictatorship.
iii.) 1986- Coalition government came into existence after election, with Sadiq al-Mahdi as Prime Minister. Earlier also Sadiq al-Mahdi had served as Prime Minister of Sudan from 1966-1967.
iv.) 1989- Sadiq al-Mahdi failed to curb the growing unrest in Sudan, in fact it grew more profound. In order to suppress the unrest Military again took over.
v.) 1993- Amidst the turmoil, an individual rose to power who was going to be in power for many decades, his name was General Omar al-Bashir who was appointed as President of Sudan.
vi.) 1995- Natives of Sudan in the beginning appeared to be satisfied with Omar coming to power, even military stood by Omar. Everything was fine, situation was under control, government appeared quite stable, there was internal stability in Sudan. But soon Sudan started facing external threats. Egyptian President Mubarak accused Sudan of being involved in an attempt to assassinate him in Capital of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa.
vii.) 1998- USA launched missile on a pharmaceutical plant in Capital of Sudan, Khartoum.
US had speculations that Sudan was preparing some sort of chemical weapon in that pharmaceutical plant.
Speculations regarding pharmaceutical plant was one of the issue among many major issues that USA with Sudan. US never liked Sudan's foreign policy. The main issue was that, Sudan was exporting oil to other African countries in addition Sudan was involved in many other activities as well that was against the grand strategy of US regarding whole Africa. Egypt on the other hand too was at odds with Sudan. So Egypt conjoined with USA against Sudan. It was from this point Sudan ran into trouble.
Shattering Confidence of Sudanese Natives: The troubles of Sudan occurred one by one like a 'Chain Reaction' adding fuel to development of further complications. The missile attack done by USA was a big event not only for Sudan but for the entire world as the missile attack was done right on the capital of Sudan, Khartoum. This missile attack led to mayhem in and out of Sudan, economic chaos being the most significant one. The investors withdrew their money, economy of Sudan came to a standstill leading to 'Stagflation', as investors had apprehension that USA can attack Sudan at any moment leading to war, as for people attack on the capital meant attack on the country. But interestingly USA after their first missile attack didn't further attack Sudan, rather their only target was that pharmaceutical plant in Khartoum. But this attack brought damage in other form as it led to disarray on a large scale in Sudan. Investors ran away, people lost trust on their government as they perceived that Sudan government is no more potent enough to handle foreign policies in their favour, and US attack on capital became centre of gravity pulling everyone's attention causing widespread tension.
As a consequence of this disorder, Sudan ran into further crisis as the ongoing disorder gave rise to a movement known as 'Separatist Movement'. People on the west and south of Sudan started raising their voice for their independence from Sudan. As per the experts opinion all this was orchestrated by US very smartly, so that Sudan can further destabilize. USA after going for missile attack was condemned all over the world, so US decided to destabilize Sudan in a political way, this is what experts say. But Sudan government instead of calming down the situation and pacify the people involved in movement, went onto suppress the movement again creating chain reaction for further disturbance. At the end of 1990s and towards the beginning of 21st century, Sudan government did a violent crackdown in the Darfur region of Sudan, as Separatist Movement had started and was at its zenith, demanding for independence from Sudan, thus forming their own independent country. Somehow President of Sudan Omar managed to keep the situation in Darfur under his control, and Darfur remained a part of Sudan, and it still continues to remain.
Omar al- Bashir Arrest Warrant: In 2009 ICC (International Criminal Court) in Hague issued an arrest warrant against President Bashir on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Darfur region of Sudan. This happened for the first time that a sitting president had to face an arrest warrant. But Sudan didn't really pay attention to this issuance of arrest warrant as Sudan was never a part of ICC (International Criminal Court).
South Sudan Gains Independence: A decade after Darfur region unrest and demand for independence, an uproar gained momentum in the southern region of Sudan which grew stronger and reached its apex in 2010. Many Sudanese in southern region of Sudan wanted to detach from Sudan, to form an independent country. Finally, on 9th July 2011 South Sudan became an independent country. This detachment of South Sudan proved disastrous for Sudan as in the northern region of Sudan only 15% of the total oil fields and oil reserves of the country are located which means South Sudan took away nearly 85% of Sudan's Oil Reserves which was a big blow to Sudan, impacting Sudan's economy as Sudan's economy was primarily dependent on Oil. USA further added to the woes of Sudan, but now by direct actions. USA slowly and steadily imposed multiple sanctions on Sudan but all these sanctions came layer by layer, as USA thought that Sudan was promoting terrorism in northern Africa by funding terrorist organisations.
As we can clearly see that nearly 85% of Oil Fields are now in South Sudan.
2018-2019 Protests in Sudan, President Bashir Sacked: Protests in Sudan again gained momentum, and became more and more profound. This time the protests were not for independence, rather this time the reason for protests was IMF. The economic situation in Sudan is not at all good and it never was, at present Sudan's economy is on the verge of collapse. As the major source of revenue for Sudan has always been oil exports but now 85% belongs to South Sudan. Recent price drop in global crude oil led to further deterioration of Sudan. Consequently, Sudan went to IMF for bailout to avert further economic disintegration, but as we all know IMF loans are loaded with conditions and restrictions. As when IMF gives loans to a country, it becomes the administrator of that country's economy, and virtually controls everything in order to fix the economy of that loan receiving country. So, accordingly Sudan too had to follow multiple conditions and restrictions and in the process of following all those conditions of IMF blindly, the prices of everything in Sudan shot up, especially prices of basic commodities like milk, wheat, rice, meat escalated rapidly. Thus Sudan ran into a phase of Galloping Inflation (Galloping Inflation is a type inflation where the inflation rate rises to 100%-200% and can sometimes reach 1000% as well). This situation led to food price protests, especially with the involvement of lower middle class people, which forms 40% of total Sudan's population, and 47% of Sudan's population lives in poverty. Timeline:
i.) 2016 November-December: Intense protests. Street and stay at home protests at IMF prompted price hikes for basic goods. Government disperses protests, arrests opposition politicians, bans media coverage.
ii.) 2017 October: US announces partial lifting of sanctions.
iii.) 2018 January: Protests against bread price rise after removal of subsidies by government of Sudan, because IMF loans orders government to reduce public spending.
iv.) 2019 February: President Bashir declares state of emergency, sacks cabinet and regional governors in a bid to end weeks of protests against his rule, in which up to 40 people died.
v.) 2019 April: Military sacks President Bashir in a coup and thus temporarily establishing military rule.
Omar had been president for decades and his plans to stay till 2020 infuriated people more. Omar too did mistakes on his side as well, when there were protests all around, then Omar openly declared that the people who are protesting are from Darfur region of Sudan, and further added that they all are anti-nationals. This declaration enraged Sudanese, as Sudanese perceived this remark as derogatory. Their saying was that how can their protests for food prices can be labelled as protests against nation. Thus more and more people joined the protests and started chanting 'We All Are Darfurs'.
But as of now President Bashir has been sacked and military has taken over Sudan. Military takeover has calmed down Sudanese to some extent. But Sudanese are not at all satisfied by military takeover as they want a stable and sensible government which can keep situation of Sudan under control through democratic means. But for now military has told that they will be the temporary head of Sudan for next 3 months, and has imposed martial law, telling people to stay calm, assuring Sudanese that soon a democratic leader of the country would be chosen.
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